The insurance sector shows resilience despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty 

In its 2025 Economic and Industry Outlook MAPFRE Economics highlights the divergence in growth trends between the Life insurance segments and Non-Life insurance segments. Thus, the projections for 2025 indicate an increase of 6.2% in the Life segment and 5.2% in Non-Life, correlated with the performance of the global macroeconomic environment. 

MAPFRE Economics insists that the performance of the main economies in the coming quarters will be decisive for the evolution of the insurance market, conditioning its growth and ability to adapt to a complex global economic environment. In this regard, MAPFRE Economic Research estimates a growth for the global economy of 2.9% this year, two-tenths higher than forecasts from a few months ago, and 3% next year, with inflation projected at 3.4% and 2.9%, respectively. 

MAPFRE Economics explains that the first half of the year was overwhelmed by a layer of global uncertainty stemming from trade policy and geopolitics. However, both variables have been softening recently and, although they remain at elevated levels, they are so far "reasonably innocuous" at the macroeconomic level. 

Returning to the insurance industry, the Life insurance segment will benefit from moderating inflation and improved financial profitability of the investment portfolios of the insurance companies. However, a slight slowdown is expected next year to 6%. This adjustment would be a response to the persistence of geopolitical uncertainties and the evolution of economic policies in major economies—factors that directly influence the risk perception of economic agents and the dynamics of their insurance decisions. 

For their part, Non-Life premiums would grow by 5.3%, one tenth more than in 2025. The forecasts from MAPFRE Economics highlight North America as the main driver of global growth in Non-Life premiums, a trend that reflects the strength of the North American market, as well as signs of maturity in its expansion dynamics. In contrast, Europe and the United Kingdom are expected to see a decline in their share, reflecting a more moderate economic environment and structural challenges in the insurance sector in these regions.  

Reinsurance: one year of consolidation 

The reinsurance sector maintains a solid financial position this year, despite the losses caused by events such as the forest fires in California at the beginning of the year. The reinsurance renewals of January 2025 have shown an improvement in prices and conditions, reflecting sufficient capacity and moderation in reinsurance prices for environmental catastrophes, as explained by MAPFRE Economics in the report.  

Insured losses from natural disasters are expected to follow an annual increase trend of between 5% and 7% in real terms, reaching significant figures. This outlook highlights the importance of adapting the insurance industry to extraordinary risks and climate change. 

You can access the full report here. 

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